Social Distancing Scenarios

Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

• Effective \(R0\): The effective R0 this % decrease corresponds to
• % of original \(R0\): Percent of the original (pre-social-distancing) \(R0\) the effective \(R0\) this scenario represents
• % Increase from current: Percent increase from current (as of 2020-05-25) level of social distancing / contact rate

Scenario	Percent orig. R0	Percent increase from current R0	Effective R0
0	21.10%	0.00%	0.85
1	34.20%	62.10%	1.39
2	47.40%	124.60%	1.92
3	60.60%	187.20%	2.45
4	73.70%	249.30%	2.98
5	86.80%	311.40%	3.52
6	100.00%	373.90%	4.05

Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts

Scenario 0

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 0.85
• % of original R0: 21.1
• % Increase from current: 0

Scenario 1

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 1.39
• % of original R0: 34.2
• % Increase from current: 62.1

Scenario 2

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 1.92
• % of original R0: 47.4
• % Increase from current: 124.6

Scenario 3

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 2.45
• % of original R0: 60.6
• % Increase from current: 187.2

Scenario 4

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 2.98
• % of original R0: 73.7
• % Increase from current: 249.3

Scenario 5

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 3.52
• % of original R0: 86.8
• % Increase from current: 311.4

Scenario 6

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 4.05
• % of original R0: 100
• % Increase from current: 373.9