Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

Scenario Percent orig. R0 Percent increase from current R0 Effective R0
0 21.10% 0.00% 0.85
1 34.20% 62.10% 1.39
2 47.40% 124.60% 1.92
3 60.60% 187.20% 2.45
4 73.70% 249.30% 2.98
5 86.80% 311.40% 3.52
6 100.00% 373.90% 4.05

Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts


Scenario 0

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 0.85
  • % of original R0: 21.1
  • % Increase from current: 0

Scenario 1

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 1.39
  • % of original R0: 34.2
  • % Increase from current: 62.1

Scenario 2

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 1.92
  • % of original R0: 47.4
  • % Increase from current: 124.6

Scenario 3

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 2.45
  • % of original R0: 60.6
  • % Increase from current: 187.2

Scenario 4

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 2.98
  • % of original R0: 73.7
  • % Increase from current: 249.3

Scenario 5

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.52
  • % of original R0: 86.8
  • % Increase from current: 311.4

Scenario 6

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 4.05
  • % of original R0: 100
  • % Increase from current: 373.9